The security landscape in northeastern Syria, particularly in the eastern Euphrates region, is highly complex and volatile due to the involvement of various local, regional, and international actors, each with conflicting interests. The region is predominantly controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but is frequently the site of clashes involving a multitude of forces, including Turkish-backed militias, Assad troops, and remnants of ISIS. Furthermore, U.S. forces maintain a presence in key strategic locations, notably the oil fields around Deir ez-Zor, which has become a focal point for various security threats.
Key Security Challenges
1. Turkish Military Threats and Operations
Turkey’s involvement in northeastern Syria is primarily driven by its opposition to the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a dominant faction within the SDF. Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist organization due to its affiliation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group Turkey has been in conflict with for decades.
As a result, Turkey has repeatedly threatened military offensives in the region to diminish the SDF’s influence. Although full-scale Turkish operations have been limited recently due to diplomatic interventions from international powers such as the U.S. and Russia, sporadic violence continues, mostly along the northern front lines. Turkish-backed forces often clash with SDF units, and civilians are frequently caught in the crossfire.
Turkey has launched several military operations against the SDF, most notably Operation Peace Spring in 2019, which displaced over 100,000 civilians and led to the capture of significant SDF-held territory along the Syrian-Turkish border. (source)
New Lines Institute reports indicate that Turkey has violated ceasefire agreements over 800 times since 2019, with regular artillery and drone strikes aimed at SDF positions. (source)
While diplomatic pressure from both the U.S. and Russia has managed to delay large-scale Turkish offensives, smaller-scale clashes are frequent. Turkish drone attacks are a persistent threat, with multiple strikes recorded in a single day in late June 2024 (source). These attacks not only undermine the SDF’s stability but also distract it from combating ISIS remnants, thereby weakening the region’s overall security.
The Turkish rapprochement with the Assad regime through Russian mediation poses significant risks to residents of areas controlled by Turkish-backed militias, particularly in northern Raqqa and the eastern countryside of Aleppo. This geopolitical shift could lead to several dangerous consequences for civilians in these regions:
As Turkey moves toward reconciliation with the Assad regime, previously Turkish-held areas could see a realignment of power. In exchange for concessions, Turkey may withdraw some of its support for opposition groups in northern Syria, which might embolden Assad’s forces to attempt reclaiming these territories. This would likely involve renewed military offensives, further displacing residents or subjecting them to the regime’s violent repression. Assad’s military advances often come with heavy bombardment, shelling, and ground assaults, placing civilians at direct risk.
2. ISIS Resurgence: While the territorial defeat of ISIS was a major achievement, the group continues to operate as an insurgency in the region. Its cells remain active, especially in the deserts and rural areas of Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah, targeting both SDF forces and civilians. The SDF, already stretched thin by its need to guard against Turkish threats and maintain internal security, is forced to allocate significant resources to countering these ISIS attacks. This continued insurgency poses a long-term threat to the fragile stability of northeastern Syria.
Despite the SDF’s success in dismantling the territorial control of ISIS, the group remains a significant threat as an insurgency. Thousands of ISIS fighters are believed to be hiding in the deserts and rural areas of Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah. The SDF, with limited resources, has struggled to contain the ISIS threat, especially as the group has shifted tactics to guerrilla warfare. Since 2022, ISIS has carried out hundreds of attacks, targeting both SDF forces and civilians, particularly in remote areas (UNOCHA).
The U.S. Central Command estimates that approximately 2,000 to 3,000 ISIS fighters are still active in northeastern Syria, with an additional 10,000 detainees held in SDF-run prisons (Washington Institute). ISIS continues to launch attacks on SDF patrols, oil facilities, and civilian targets, attempting to reassert its influence. These attacks include roadside bombings, targeted assassinations, and suicide bombings, contributing to an atmosphere of fear and instability. In August 2024, ISIS-linked fighters were involved in escalating hostilities in Deir ez-Zor, further complicating the SDF’s efforts to maintain control (UNOCHA).
In response to the ISIS threat, the SDF has called for increased international support, particularly in areas like prison security, where thousands of ISIS fighters and their families are held under poor conditions. The potential for a mass breakout remains one of the SDF’s biggest fears, which could lead to a surge in ISIS activities across the region.
- Internal Clashes and Tribal Tensions: The SDF also faces internal challenges, particularly in Deir ez-Zor, where clashes with Arab tribes have erupted. In August 2024, significant hostilities broke out, causing civilian casualties and displacements. Tribal groups in this region have expressed discontent with the SDF’s administration, sometimes accusing it of favoring Kurdish populations. This tension has led to sporadic violence, further complicating the humanitarian and security situation.
The eastern Euphrates region has also seen increasing tensions between Arab tribal groups and the Kurdish-led SDF. Deir ez-Zor, in particular, has become a hotspot for tribal violence, exacerbated by disputes over control and representation. In August 2024, heavy clashes between SDF forces and Arab tribal fighters in Deir ez-Zor led to at least 25 civilian deaths and 28 injuries. The fighting largely took place in towns like Hawayej, Thiban, and Sabha, extending across both banks of the Euphrates (UNOCHA).
Arab tribes have historically been suspicious of Kurdish-led governance, accusing the SDF of political and economic marginalization. The tribal unrest in Deir ez-Zor is fueled by grievances over resource distribution, including access to oil revenues and control over local governance. Clashes often flare up due to the perception that the SDF favors Kurdish populations at the expense of Arab communities, further destabilizing the area and hampering humanitarian efforts.
4. Humanitarian Impact and Water Crisis: The ongoing conflict has had severe humanitarian consequences. Water shortages, exacerbated by Turkish control of key infrastructure, have left many areas, including Hasakah, in dire straits. Turkey’s capture of the Aluk water station, which provides drinking water to hundreds of thousands of people, has become a major point of contention. Voluntary water cuts, exacerbated by ongoing clashes, have fueled ethnic tensions between Arab and Kurdish communities (Washington Institute).
The ongoing violence, particularly between Turkish forces, Arab tribes, and ISIS elements, has had dire humanitarian consequences. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that over 700,000 people in northeastern Syria are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, with water shortages, displacement, and food insecurity exacerbating the crisis (UNOCHA). The Euphrates River has become a strategic point of contention, with control over water resources worsening ethnic tensions between Arabs and Kurds (Washington Institute).
Strategically, the SDF’s weakened position leaves the region vulnerable to further destabilization. The group faces difficult choices, needing to balance its counter-ISIS operations while defending against Turkish threats and managing internal tribal conflicts. With both U.S. and Russian forces playing critical roles in the region, any shifts in international support could further alter the balance of power.
In conclusion, northeastern Syria remains a region teetering on the edge of collapse, with various actors competing for control. The ongoing conflict between the SDF and Turkish forces, tribal tensions, and the persistent threat of ISIS continue to shape the region’s fragile security landscape. Without sustained international engagement, the region risks descending into deeper chaos.
